Gas price forecast is uncertain

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For Blaise Kamahele, high gas prices mean less cruising and more planning.

For Blaise Kamahele, high gas prices mean less cruising and more planning.

When the price at the pump isn’t favorable, the 21-year-old Hawaii Community College student saves bucks by consolidating errands, or cutting out trips that aren’t essential.

“When prices are high, I’ll go to college and then maybe stop for lunch somewhere and then go home and I can’t go anywhere else,” Kamehele said Monday as he topped off his four-wheel drive Jeep at a gas station in Hilo. “I have to plan things more carefully.”

So, Kamehele — along with just about every other Big Island driver — has enjoyed having some extra cash this past year as a result of rock-bottom gas prices. Statewide, prices hit seven-year lows earlier this spring and they have remained below $3 per gallon for almost a year.

On Monday, a gallon of unleaded fuel in Hilo averaged $2.64, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge report. That’s more than 50 cents below the average price a year ago and a $1.69 drop from prices three years ago. The average cost has dropped 5 cents just in the last week and is down about 22 cents from a month ago.

Stations in Kona reported prices between $2.86 and $2.91 on Monday, according to the website GasBuddy.com; drivers statewide were paying $2.70 on average. The website reported the average national price per gallon was at $2.17 Monday, up 4 cents from a week ago.

Whether record-low savings are here to stay remains murky. Gas prices nationally generally begin to drop in mid-September in part because many refineries throughout the country make a federally mandated, bi-yearly fuel switch from “summer blend” to “winter blend” gasoline. Summer blend gas burns cleaner but is more expensive to produce. Demand also tends to drop in the fall and winter months.

This month, however, crude oil prices have surged causing some experts to say that could eventually translate to higher prices at the pump — including in Hawaii. A barrel was trading for about $47 Monday, up about $6 from a few weeks ago.

“If oil finds a more steady ground in the $50 range, all of us will see prices increase,” said Jeffrey Spring, AAA spokesman. “If refineries have to buy oil at a higher price, they’re going to pass that cost along.”

Spring said the oil surge probably stems from reduced production in recent months in an effort to appease a current oversupply. Producers have cut back production hoping “to quell this huge supply on hand,” he said.

“(Long-term gas prices are) hard to say,” he said. “The forecast right now is for oil to increase but it’s hard to say how firmly and how long that will occur in such a gluttonous oil market. What we’re seeing is, prices have increased 12 of the last 17 days nationally. So, they’re still low compared to last year but it’s on the upswing.”

Hilo-based Pizza Hut delivery driver Aaron Ortner said he hopes prices stay low. Even a 20-cent per gallon price drop translates to up to $40 per month in fuel savings, Ortner said. He buys gas about twice a week to assist with the store’s roughly 10 pizza deliveries per day.

“The less I pay for gas, the more money in my pocket,” Ortner said Monday. “So, it’s definitely beneficial when prices go down.”

The price of diesel in Hilo averaged $4.01 Monday, down from 4.27 a year ago. Statewide, the average diesel price was $4.08.

Email Kirsten Johnson at kjohnson@hawaiitribune-herald.com.